The college football landscape is always full of surprises, and the NCAAF season is no exception. As teams prepare to clash on the gridiron, fans are eagerly anticipating which matchups will yield unexpected outcomes. In the world of college football, upsets are not just possible - they’re probable. Let’s examine five potential upsets that could shake up the season.
1. Unseeded Mid-Major Takes Down Power Conference Team
Historically, mid-major programs have occasionally pulled off monumental upsets against Power Five conference opponents. These David vs. Goliath matchups often feature unheralded teams facing off against heavily favored power conference squads. For instance, consider the 2018 matchup where UMass Minutemen, then a mid-major program, nearly defeated the then-14th ranked Boise State Broncos, ultimately losing 48-31. Such games demonstrate that on any given Saturday, a lower-ranked team can capitalize on a Power Five team’s off day.
Factors contributing to potential upsets include:
- Mismatch in game plans
- Unfamiliarity with opponents' unique styles
- Coaching decisions on game day
- Player injuries or suspensions
A similar scenario could play out this season if an unheralded mid-major team like the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers or Appalachian State Mountaineers were to face a Power Five opponent struggling with injuries or inconsistency. The key to such an upset would be the mid-major team’s ability to stick to their game plan and capitalize on the favored team’s mistakes.
2. Highly Touted Freshman Quarterback Falters Against Unprepared Defense
The transition from high school to college football can be jarring for even the most touted freshman quarterbacks. While some, like Trevor Lawrence and Kyle Orton in their respective times, have adapted seamlessly, others have struggled. A top-ranked team facing a less-heralded opponent with a defense that has specifically game-planned to counter the freshman quarterback’s strengths could see an upset.
| Factor | Impact on Upset Potential |
|---|---|
| Quarterback Experience | Freshmen often struggle with decision-making and pocket presence. |
| Defensive Preparation | Teams that game-plan specifically for a freshman QB's weaknesses can exploit them. |
| Pressure and Expectations | The weight of expectation can sometimes hinder a QB's performance. |
For example, if a team like the Clemson Tigers, boasting a highly touted freshman quarterback, were to face a team like the South Carolina Gamecocks, who have studied Clemson’s tendencies and prepared a defense to counter their strengths, the stage could be set for an upset.
3. Resurgent Program Takes Down Former Rival
College football is replete with rivalries that often transcend mere competition. When a program on the rise faces off against a former rival now experiencing a downturn, the dynamics can be particularly interesting. The resurgent program, fueled by recent success and perhaps a new coaching staff or recruiting class, might pull off an upset against a team that once dominated them.
"Rivalries are the lifeblood of college football. When a resurgent program faces a former rival, the stakes are always high, and the potential for an upset is magnified."
Consider a scenario where the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, having experienced a resurgence under new leadership, face off against their rivals, the Georgia Bulldogs, who are struggling with inconsistency. The Yellow Jackets, buoyed by their recent success and the animosity of the rivalry, could potentially upset their more-favored opponents.
4. Undefeated Team Stumbles Against a Hungry Opponent
Undefeated teams often carry an aura of invincibility, but they can also be vulnerable to complacency. A team that’s been on a winning streak, particularly one that’s not been particularly challenged, might underestimate a hungry opponent looking to make a statement.
Key factors that could lead to an upset:
- The undefeated team's complacency or overconfidence
- The hungry opponent's motivation and game planning
- Any significant injuries or suspensions on the favored team
For instance, if the Michigan Wolverines, riding a winning streak, were to face the Ohio State Buckeyes, who are looking to avenge a previous loss and are highly motivated, the Buckeyes might pull off an upset by capitalizing on any complacency the Wolverines display.
5. Bowl-Eligible Team Upsets Higher-Ranked Opponent on the Road
Traveling to an opponent’s home turf is always a challenge, and for a bowl-eligible team facing a higher-ranked opponent on the road, the task can seem daunting. However, some teams thrive under these conditions, using the hostile environment to their advantage.
Advantages of being the road team:
- Familiarity with their own preparation and game plan
- The ability to feed off the energy of their traveling fans
- Potential for the home team to be overconfident
Disadvantages:
- Travel fatigue
- Unfamiliarity with the home team's stadium and crowd
- Pressure of performing on the road
A team like the Iowa Hawkeyes, looking to become bowl-eligible, might travel to face a higher-ranked opponent like the Minnesota Golden Gophers. If the Hawkeyes can capitalize on their preparation, the energy of their fans, and any overconfidence from the Gophers, they might just pull off the upset.
FAQs
What factors most commonly contribute to upsets in college football?
+Common factors include injuries to key players on the favored team, mismatches in game plans, and the underdog team’s ability to capitalize on the favored team’s mistakes. Additionally, factors like weather, crowd noise, and coaching decisions can also play significant roles.
How often do mid-major teams upset Power Five teams?
+While not common, upsets by mid-major teams against Power Five teams do occur. Historically, these upsets are more likely when the mid-major team has a strong defensive game plan and can capitalize on turnovers or special teams plays.
Can a team with a highly touted freshman quarterback be upset by a team with a more experienced quarterback?
+Yes, it’s possible. If the opposing team can game-plan effectively against the freshman quarterback’s strengths and exploit their inexperience, an upset is feasible. The more experienced quarterback can provide a level of stability and decision-making that is harder to counter.
How significant is home-field advantage in college football upsets?
+Home-field advantage can be significant. The energy of the home crowd, familiarity with the stadium, and other factors can give the home team an edge. However, a well-prepared visiting team can still pull off an upset with the right game plan and execution.
